The PD directive will take place later this morning. Here is what I think will emerge from the meeting:
1) The party will back Bersani’s line to have a go at trying get the backing of parliament. As the largest coalition in both houses, procedure-wise, this is the right thing to do.
[The attempt is likely to fail as M5S has reiterated multiple times it will not provide a confidence vote].
2) As a plan B, while Bersani’s current approach seems to point to an immediate election as the only alternative to working with the M5S, the PD directive is likely to budge from this “Grillo or Bust” approach and open up to a greater flexibility towards alternative options (such as backing PMs/governments proposed by the president).
3) If this were the case, it is likely Italy would eventually end up with a widely supported caretaker government ahead of elections in a year or so.
As written before, it’s my view that this would also be the most desirable approach as it separates the immediate need for a government (stability) with the PD leadership question.
I’ll post something later today after the meeting (which should be live streamed here from 9:00GMT).